World Cup 2026 Matchup Simulator

48 Nations · Official FIFA Bracket LIVE実結果を反映した予測→

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Ratings used in this simulator

Group Stage

12 groups × 4 teams

Calculating...

DATA SOURCES

Opta Power Rating: theanalyst.com (2025-12-05)

Elo Rating: eloratings.net (2026-04-25, daily updated)

FIFA Ranking: inside.fifa.com (2026-04-25, daily updated)

Atk/Def values: Computed from eloratings.net match histories since 2022

Power Rating: Opponent-adjusted goal efficiency (50%) + win-points efficiency vs expectation (50%), from the same match histories; Power mode converts rating gaps into win odds with the exact same machinery as Elo mode — same engine, our fuel

Matchup Data: Stratified attack/defence rates (scoring vs strong and weak opponents separately); in Matchup mode the simulation samples a score from these rates and the score itself decides the winner — no ranking touches the outcome

Bracket: FIFA World Cup 2026 official format (48 teams, 12 groups)

METHODOLOGY

Match outcomes simulated via Elo-based probability formula with rating-calibrated draw rates. Third-place qualification follows FIFA's official 495-scenario matrix for 8 best third-placed teams.

NOTES

Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Bosnia Opta values are estimates based on Opta world rank. Simulator is for entertainment/analysis purposes only and does not predict actual results.

v2.16.7 · Built with ❤️ for World Cup 2026

Last updated: 2026-04-25